Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3387fa2819e53e287432c4a042d08c1aaafeb994df508aeaa97e1ebd5f8d36c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 3,329$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.91 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,749$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.94 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 51c | 1,458$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.75 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 1,122$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.66 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 48c | 415.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 388.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 47c | 363.78$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.27 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 52c | 70.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 49c | 67.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 59c | 45.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 65c | 42.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…ca8fbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 4.5this page
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: Team to AdvanceFK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)FK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-2.5)FK Liepāja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.