Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a58fed4edd933185e337890213de7af4d122321983ce5ccfe6810772237aa04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Austria Wienof FK Austria Wien, FK Liepāja
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed FK Liepāja | 44c | 3,116$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.65 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FK Austria Wien | 53c | 1,904$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.92 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed FK Austria Wien | 57c | 609.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed FK Austria Wien | 56c | 386.88$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed FK Liepāja | 46c | 382.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked FK Austria Wien | 56c | 343.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FK Austria Wien | 59c | 299.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Liepāja | 42c | 261.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed FK Liepāja | 45c | 220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Liepāja | 48c | 122.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FK Austria Wien | 56c | 110.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed FK Austria Wien | 55c | 99.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FK Austria Wien | 57c | 80.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FK Austria Wien | 58c | 72.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FK Austria Wien | 58c | 70.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d65…bb09backed FK Liepāja | 28c | 64.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked FK Liepāja | 42c | 60.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FK Austria Wien | 56c | 59.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FK Austria Wien | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed FK Liepāja | 42c | 36.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed FK Austria Wien | 59c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FK Austria Wien | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FK Liepāja | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FK Austria Wien | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed FK Austria Wien | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +11.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked FK Liepāja | 39c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed FK Austria Wien | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed FK Austria Wien | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed FK Austria Wien | 56c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)this page
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. FK Liepāja: Team to AdvanceFK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-2.5)FK Liepāja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.