Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339517f7dd7f96fa50633e7d6022997b383f524ae08f1f3ee2215121a77f5e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 55c | 3,030$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.67 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 18c | 913.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 20c | 491.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.3 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 484.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 412.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Over | 64c | 393.38$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 80c | 389.35$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.48 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 50c | 210.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 43c | 205.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…7035backed Over | 80c | 192.64$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 77cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…58d6backed Under | 17c | 162.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 17c | 123.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 17c | 121.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 119.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 18c | 118.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 111.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 16c | 95.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 21c | 59.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 46c | 56.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f4d1backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 67c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)Estoril Praia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.