Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ea728765c8704b7d75ab6c7440e1506505a4f234deaf5fb09d930dc03c74ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 36c | 1,202$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.57 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 15c | 416.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 64c | 370.49$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 65c | 288.8$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 34c | 282.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 226.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 198.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 6c | 184.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Under | 30c | 157.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 35c | 85.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 35c | 85.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 35c | 85.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 32c | 68.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)Estoril Praia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.