Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23420e87cdb53a5b4acbaf97b130d83683b4ae5f670895b4b475c242699fd46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 55c | 1,069$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.1 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 58c | 970.88$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.77 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 902.79$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.06 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 59c | 826.61$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 645.28$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.62 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 302.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 198.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 134.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 58c | 112.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 70.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…a8dbbacked Over | 56c | 68.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 58c | 45.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 56c | 43.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Under | 45c | 38.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 55c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 103 | 23.3%24 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Over | 56c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 32.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Over | 58c | 31.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…0bc7backed Over | 59c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Under | 47c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 46c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)Estoril Praia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.