Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33da3b13f1d0d963305e74b8772398886a05a9ef7354893b2522a5d9c6ac8f3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 451.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 303$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 226.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 196.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 25c | 188.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 175.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 152.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 148.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 119.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 107.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 104.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 15c | 99.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 19c | 97.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 21c | 93.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 88.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 81.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 66.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 60.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 58.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 26c | 58.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 50.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 24c | 48.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 43.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 77c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 74c | 32.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 27.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 77c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.