Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb828f4612665fcc4958e51e215a5489ed82761229114fb33cfb911a15d18da88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 392.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 338.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 255.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 248.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 186.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 183.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 177.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 35c | 174$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 44c | 167.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 154.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 73c | 126.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 125.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 118.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 117.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 115.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 47c | 106.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 96.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 89.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 46c | 76.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 70.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 70.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 68.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 44c | 67.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 23c | 63.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 47c | 63.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 57.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 57.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 53.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 53.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 80c | 49.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 50c | 45.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 41.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 40.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 46c | 38.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 36.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 34.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 33.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 31.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 62c | 28.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 27.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 26.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…79bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 21.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 19.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.