Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x340c9d2697ea6ce8018bfc12b7465d9078410603f39d43f84e68f68e05541dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Tien, Jodar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b3f…5f27backed Tien | 5c | 5,244$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Jodar | 35c | 146.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Jodar | 37c | 146$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Tien | 67c | 145.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Jodar | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Jodar | 33c | 126$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jodar | 32c | 80.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Tien | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Tien | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Jodar | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Tien | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Jodar | 33c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Tien | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Jodar | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Tien | 67c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…6ccdbacked Jodar | 60c | 39.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Tien | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Tien | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Tien | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Tien | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Tien | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Tien | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Tien | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Tien | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Tien | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Tien | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Tien | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Tien | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Tien | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Tien | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Tien | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Tien | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Tien | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5)this page
- Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Learner Tien vs Rafael JodarJodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs JodarTien won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5)Jodar won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Tien vs. Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.