Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341c1f5d2ee675e3d71d9f22c098ebec92047b4a73c58f16e8381e8cc7fbc509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 50c | 20,981$10,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,490.66 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Under | 50c | 18,898$9,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,448.64 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 49c | 10,394$5,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250.65 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 9,342$4,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.96 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 3,359$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.01 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 49c | 1,158$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.68 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 50c | 1,047$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.15 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 51c | 594.75$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.32 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…b0a2backed Under | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 337.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 51c | 291.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Under | 50c | 119.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 51c | 104.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 48c | 99.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 51c | 67.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 52c | 62.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68c…c8b1backed Under | 48c | 60.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Under | 50c | 29.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 50c | 29.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5this page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-15.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-16.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.