Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813f3eb8b868d96bc3f33bca3555847c8fd5c3f3f3c897c269600951444120ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 55c | 2,184$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.81 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 1,844$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.29 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 346.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 266.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 47c | 227.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Iowa State Cyclones | 41c | 149.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 60c | 109.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…b482backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 109.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 40c | 107.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 97.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 88.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 74.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 74.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 47c | 63.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 62.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 36c | 51.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 47c | 50.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 49.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…5364backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 79c | 49.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 78c | 48.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 42.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 36c | 30.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 28.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 64c | 27.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa State Cyclones | 46c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)this page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5Over won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-15.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-16.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.