Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a39958574da1e50f5dc87b825466b3bf4603ee05d8c4e993e2d861c243acf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,182 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 47c | 5,371$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.56 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 4,816$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.28 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 2,287$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.93 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 1,846$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.53 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 1,634$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.13 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 991.28$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.9 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 812.57$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.78 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 47c | 654$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.88 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 324.07$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 280.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 187.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Iowa State Cyclones | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 148.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 135.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 121.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 46c | 60.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 57.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 53.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 55c | 45.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 32.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-15.5)this page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5Over won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-16.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.