Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a3a156fe9c614866b8d7bc1d5c59493624c01620024774aa801ce84f272d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Arizona State Sun Devils, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd162…0d24backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 26c | 9,916$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 6c | 6,568$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.85 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Iowa State Cyclones | 74c | 2,332$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.98 | 316 | 46.8%148 W · 168 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 1,986$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 1,495$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 1,361$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 1,279$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…36c8backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 1,250$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 1,085$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 647.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 631.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 599.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 516.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa330…9d33backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 456.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 450$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 6c | 433.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 399.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…8533backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 352.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa State Cyclones | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…ff12backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 25c | 278.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 216.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 258 | 29.5%76 W · 182 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 208.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 199.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 194.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 24c | 177.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 162.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 159.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Iowa State Cyclones | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 148.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Iowa State Cyclones | 79c | 128.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa State Cyclones | 78c | 122.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Iowa State Cyclones | 77c | 93.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 79.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 64.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Iowa State Cyclones | 78c | 61.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 47.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclonesthis page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5Over won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-15.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-16.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.