Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts less than 40 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341f08c2b5f90bb47218d758dad10834ec03cd7d4e20a225238f73ee2a3fb05f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 14c | 2,060$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.05 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 56c | 549.22$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 66c | 254.9$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked Yes | 79c | 221.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 29c | 175$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Yes | 63c | 162.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 10c | 111.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 46c | 64.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 53c | 47.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…396cbacked No | 71c | 33.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts less than 40 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 40-44 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 45-49 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 50-54 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 55-59 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 60-64 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 65-69 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 70 or more times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.