Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3429840df99dd48681f2337415e93c0f9afa748f7b623c2da61ebea1576213f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 389.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 359.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 263.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 220.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 220.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 207.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 206.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 149.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 143.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…064cbacked Yes | 33c | 113.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 104.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 79c | 95.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 25c | 94.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 91.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 86.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 45c | 79.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 78.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 66.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 22c | 58.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 79c | 55.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 55.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 27c | 52.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 37c | 50.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…acd1backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 49.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 21c | 48.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 47.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 63c | 45.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 30c | 37.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 38c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 56c | 31.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 38c | 26.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 70c | 26.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 70c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 79c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 74c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.