Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd4a787f59a57fe298a7458edb99838de4b2171bda748f3ff2f5968db8a7ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 6c | 569.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 479.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 416.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 23c | 282.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 218.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 13c | 196.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 11c | 173.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 173.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 157.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…c369backed Yes | 19c | 142.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 128.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 115.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 111.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 23c | 101.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 91.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 91.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 15c | 91.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 22c | 90.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 85.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed Yes | 17c | 85.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked Yes | 31c | 74.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 74.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 73.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 23c | 70.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…7511backed Yes | 34c | 69.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 20c | 57.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked No | 70c | 56.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 55.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 78c | 54.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 52.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 51.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 43.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 78c | 43.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 43.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 26c | 39.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 78c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 31.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…1fc3backed Yes | 33c | 30.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 70c | 25.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 78c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.