Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6542eb674815640248240306ead09b3b308915ac30561c0e91a80cdedf25c220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 363.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 262.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 19c | 119.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 45c | 99.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 98.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 95.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 86.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 68c | 85.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 80.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 46c | 77.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 73.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 73.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 59c | 70.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 59.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 58c | 58.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 56.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 22c | 53.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 45c | 52.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 51.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 37c | 50.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 50.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 49.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 48.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 41c | 48.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 45.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 58c | 42.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 40.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 43c | 38.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 65c | 37.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 36.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3f60backed Yes | 43c | 33.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 54c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 75c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Yes | 37c | 28.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed No | 42c | 27.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…1dcabacked Yes | 61c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 55c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…1fc3backed Yes | 69c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 21.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 66c | 21.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 62c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…064cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…bb41backed No | 66c | 17.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 66c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…71fcbacked No | 66c | 16.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.