AI · resolved market
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342aa11614505a702ac7f414c85ffb0e7b502fee89642cdc8783bcfb7ae21843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 3c | 12,813$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,809$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…6680backed Yes | 3c | 4,612$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,530$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5432…8340backed Yes | 4c | 3,157$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 1c | 3,106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,954$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48fc…e49fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,838$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 3c | 2,556$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 2c | 1,960$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,378$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed Yes | 2c | 1,325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c1…f654backed Yes | 3c | 1,191$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…70cbbacked Yes | 4c | 939.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes | 1c | 777.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 3c | 603.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…a4c8backed Yes | 2c | 596.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…a43fbacked Yes | 2c | 549.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…28f7backed Yes | 2c | 411.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 8c | 211.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31?this page
- Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on October 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31?Yes won
- Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on October 31?No won
- Will Jensen Huang be richest person on October 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on October 31?No won
- Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.