NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3455108147dffbeee6822123666041841b446aa8233872e93365bd2aa777255a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Warriors, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 44c | 2,058$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 57c | 2,052$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Lakers | 54c | 1,845$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.62 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lakers | 57c | 815.52$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.57 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lakers | 72c | 692.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.16 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Warriors | 42c | 639.88$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Lakers | 63c | 584.23$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Warriors | 42c | 541$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Lakers | 58c | 505$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Warriors | 22c | 494.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Warriors | 44c | 445$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Lakers | 71c | 181.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Lakers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Warriors | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lakers | 78c | 123.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Warriors | 32c | 117.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Warriors | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…e360backed Lakers | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lakers | 70c | 97.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…a702backed Lakers | 63c | 95.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lakers | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Lakers | 58c | 53.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Warriors | 32c | 46.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Lakers | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Warriors | 45c | 27.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.