Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy beat France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346ccc87762a99de5055828cba5867393e44d0eb636d9b301e8b33db1b264c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fde…ed39backed Yes | 37c | 6,043$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 62c | 3,051$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.71 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 41c | 2,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 59c | 2,387$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 78c | 2,379$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.38 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 64c | 921.88$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.88 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 64c | 697$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 17c | 597.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 77c | 513.31$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…1c01backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes | 36c | 361.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 32c | 324.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…f693backed Yes | 41c | 258$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 41c | 255$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…3c8abacked Yes | 41c | 249.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 237.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 23c | 228.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 76c | 222.44$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Yes | 13c | 219.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 66c | 194.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 20c | 167.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…0953backed Yes | 34c | 144.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b8…9e37backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 36c | 126.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…f916backed Yes | 41c | 118.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…6054backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…f454backed No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e5…cff1backed Yes | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 61c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 64c | 83.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…dd43backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…f26cbacked Yes | 36c | 82.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…2fd7backed Yes | 36c | 79.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…33d8backed No | 62c | 62.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7611…d9aabacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…9c38backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ae07backed No | 62c | 53.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…16c2backed Yes | 30c | 49.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…7f43backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…9150backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy beat France?this page
- Will France beat Italy?Yes won
- Will the match between Italy and France end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.