Fifa International · resolved market
Will France beat Italy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d896e774940acb1aa1b1e1a4d7700bc020421ec9c1a82bd64720a919f12cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 67c | 3,878$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.69 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 35c | 3,600$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 4c | 2,327$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 64c | 2,071$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 69c | 1,448$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.59 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 76c | 1,264$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 64c | 1,256$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.96 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…1c01backed No | 72c | 977.31$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…0953backed Yes | 33c | 976.65$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed No | 18c | 952.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 66c | 542.22$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.43 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…9bacbacked No | 78c | 510.72$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 32c | 500.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 70c | 480$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.4 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fb2bbacked Yes | 37c | 453.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…c2f4backed Yes | 38c | 375.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.93 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 30c | 356$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 62c | 339.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…6202backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 61c | 262.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 25c | 247.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…d42fbacked Yes | 59c | 227.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 19c | 217$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…75aabacked No | 66c | 199.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 62c | 185.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 155.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 65c | 153.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…4b62backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…bd9cbacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…4d9ebacked No | 67c | 119$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 63c | 111.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 51c | 80.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…3235backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 67c | 59.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…3dbbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 38c | 53.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…0464backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…68dfbacked Yes | 34c | 50.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 37c | 46.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 36c | 34.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…b24cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…63ddbacked Yes | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7530backed Yes | 56c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France beat Italy?this page
- Will Italy beat France?No won
- Will the match between Italy and France end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.