NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Lions: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347fe960319a051f6e399c7f03d337e26765fca752855a8c7749879c0dab8653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 50c | 16,072$8,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,023.51 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 50c | 15,000$7,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,550 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 50c | 13,541$6,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,770.6 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 49c | 4,033$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.81 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 42c | 2,010$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.6 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Under | 51c | 1,965$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.85 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 955.85$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 900$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 49c | 309.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 49c | 149.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 47.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…7efbbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Lions: O/U 44.5this page
- Browns vs. LionsLions won
- Browns vs. Lions: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.