NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb15c3800dd9d7a36e4bb5557f794c5aca462194d7b57fa85c25427b79a8f80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lions | 47c | 10,254$4,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,415.9 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…6088backed Lions | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Browns | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Browns | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.97 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lions | 43c | 4,000$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.37 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Browns | 57c | 3,917$2,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.22 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Browns | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Browns | 53c | 2,433$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.49 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Browns | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Lions | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Browns | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbf…06d4backed Lions | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Browns | 55c | 232.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…c97fbacked Lions | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Browns | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Browns | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…ce1cbacked Browns | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Browns | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Lions | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lions | 66c | 139$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Lions | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Lions | 47c | 103.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…cc72backed Browns | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Lions | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Lions | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Lions | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Browns | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Browns | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Lions | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Lions | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Lions | 48c | 65.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Lions | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Browns | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Lions | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Lions | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Lions | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Lions | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1352backed Browns | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Lions | 48c | 21.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Lions | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)this page
- Browns vs. LionsLions won
- Browns vs. Lions: O/U 43.5Over won
- Browns vs. Lions: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.