Earnings · resolved market
Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b757c5f3db545a90059fe79b03ba79488b72acf7c2df7ad267a2424baf9c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 13c | 1,682$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 16c | 1,014$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 79c | 552.59$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 490.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 20c | 472.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 365.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 70c | 301.02$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 17c | 221.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 77c | 188.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 152.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 72c | 146.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Yes | 78c | 144.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 65c | 143.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a42…b1a5backed No | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.