Us Politics · resolved market
Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f318a2a57f9462db5c217625e2905ff2aff165ddcfde961ada85cd757614a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ea6…0cd3backed Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…6fe1backed No | 78c | 138$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b806backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 79c | 101.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0f…77ebbacked Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…9ad0backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…7cb0backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…3d6dbacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf19…2997backed No | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…f970backed No | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba20…1bf4backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…e269backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…3d5dbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae6…14b4backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…e0d5backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 24c | 51.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…21bbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867e…08b7backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…ba62backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…70a8backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…f3c6backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 30?this page
- Will ICE detain 1000-1099 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1200 or more people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 600-699 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 700-799 people on January 30?Yes won
- Will ICE detain 900-999 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.