Us Politics · resolved market
Will ICE detain 700-799 people on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3553fb237e53dd1cc26d0576a266c71785dc94f033d93feaddee2872d77a7749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd13b…59c4backed Yes | 21c | 211$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…31edbacked No | 77c | 146$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…0ab2backed Yes | 23c | 146$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…ba62backed No | 77c | 144$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…212dbacked Yes | 23c | 144$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c2…b453backed No | 79c | 141$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…d9d0backed Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c1…d0b1backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…3893backed No | 79c | 117$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…0deebacked Yes | 21c | 112$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…121cbacked No | 77c | 111$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c390backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…25f8backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed No | 77c | 107$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2f85backed Yes | 23c | 107$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +187%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…1227backed Yes | 23c | 107$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…70a8backed No | 77c | 107$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…a3dabacked Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…6641backed No | 79c | 104$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…c1d1backed Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…be72backed No | 79c | 103$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…a261backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c83…5f71backed No | 77c | 95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…10dcbacked Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…d2b0backed Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…744cbacked No | 79c | 74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd319…81c9backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c96…0e03backed No | 77c | 69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 24c | 67.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…78a6backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…e4cfbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…6c13backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2c98backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…0ca1backed No | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…f293backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…dd54backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…f8f1backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…396fbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…948fbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…4d6fbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…1766backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…e780backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…031cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…9101backed No | 80c | 32.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…b75dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…1461backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…5f00backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…2a65backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…d099backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…ba9fbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…cc01backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…afecbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…41abbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ICE detain 700-799 people on January 30?this page
- Will ICE detain 1000-1099 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1200 or more people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 600-699 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 900-999 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.