Us Politics · resolved market
Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb576204b9ed6e61c883aebb4679267853c89ed34f676b45e36a2707fce502f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8244…7a11backed No | 79c | 601.94$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 22c | 201.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 201.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.72 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 181.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…7d93backed Yes | 49c | 157$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…955ebacked Yes | 43c | 153$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d77…7c1ebacked Yes | 52c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867e…08b7backed No | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7c…88b1backed Yes | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…f84fbacked No | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…414ebacked Yes | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13b…59c4backed No | 51c | 133$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…6c55backed No | 51c | 129$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…6d33backed No | 47c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…e0d5backed Yes | 50c | 121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…8c2ebacked No | 50c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…bab5backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d1…e528backed No | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…e4ffbacked Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 18c | 113.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…7a65backed Yes | 49c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…aca7backed No | 51c | 111$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…e167backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…70b4backed No | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…dff8backed Yes | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc467…59efbacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…99efbacked Yes | 44c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…629cbacked Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…9a01backed Yes | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…64bcbacked No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…d9b6backed Yes | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc702…6dc2backed Yes | 46c | 51.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…dd54backed Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…596cbacked No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…e3cebacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…d9d0backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…2bcbbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…5dc2backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…994cbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…dd92backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd56…7835backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…7fffbacked No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…0ca1backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…a3dabacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…154cbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…da67backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ICE detain less than 600 people on January 30?this page
- Will ICE detain 1000-1099 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 1200 or more people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 600-699 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 700-799 people on January 30?Yes won
- Will ICE detain 800-899 people on January 30?No won
- Will ICE detain 900-999 people on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.