Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f79131ebfb71bdd07a36e1f8bc01d024a911cb6b264e97f1e9b6ddf04b9112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 636.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 589.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 17c | 427.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 17c | 404.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…f168backed Yes | 15c | 299.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 280.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 257.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 254.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 215.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 150.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 14c | 137.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 125.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 76c | 114.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 80c | 109.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 20c | 109.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 22c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 80c | 83.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 20c | 77.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 79c | 72.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 70.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked No | 79c | 63.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 17c | 62.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 23c | 60.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 47.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 45.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…101dbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 76c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 79c | 14.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.