Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd914d70785973e216888407c63c36a28f17b4b507dbd4d6942abe46611d55af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 1c | 5,304$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 58c | 2,145$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.92 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 70c | 795.18$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 8c | 584.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 73c | 534.93$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 440.17$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 308.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 301.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.09 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 11c | 275.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No | 7c | 244$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 49c | 224.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 195.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 192.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 20c | 183.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 45c | 167.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 31c | 165.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 159.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 158.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 153.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 148.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 136.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 114.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 29c | 113.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 44c | 94.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 70c | 93.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 89.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 39c | 89.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 77c | 84.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 80.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 21c | 77.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 55c | 76.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 76.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 71c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 73.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 36c | 73.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 71.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 29c | 60.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 58.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 55.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 50.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 38c | 49.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 48.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 41c | 45.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 37c | 40.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 37.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 37.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 36.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…c040backed Yes | 68c | 35.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 74c | 32.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 69c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 26.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 54c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 61c | 20.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 18.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 18.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 75c | 17.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 70c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.