Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1345e2d24833934f591df02c2f06f8dc01499a25754c8b8a195304bc916d7035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 667.23$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 465.56$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 435.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 36c | 416.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 65c | 384.72$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 347.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 20c | 340.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 74c | 328.88$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 23c | 304.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 285.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 279.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 38c | 255.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 232.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 197.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 195.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 192$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 188.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 175$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 167.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 166.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 154.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 66c | 152.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 141.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 71c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 128.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 127.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 120.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 103.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 95.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 92.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 67c | 92.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 62c | 89.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 87.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 48c | 87.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes | 18c | 78.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 77.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 58c | 71.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 64.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 62.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 62.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 60.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 36c | 59.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 33c | 53.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 47.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 47.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 45.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 43.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 40c | 42.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…d73dbacked No | 68c | 37.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 37.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 73c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 33.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 33.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 33.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 31.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 34c | 31.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 63c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 67c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 75c | 29.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 36c | 29.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 67c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…a02bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 66c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68eabacked No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.