NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34fa7c7032b5fc4e4df986167f6a60aa952a26d5395652801c4006f7e48ff1c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 4,600$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.45 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 52c | 2,233$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.84 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…3251backed Under | 47c | 1,126$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,126$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.06 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…e4c8backed Over | 54c | 930.09$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.09 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…1cf4backed Over | 53c | 816$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 48c | 708.33$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…0b8dbacked Under | 47c | 680$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 630.62$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.1 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 51c | 572.85$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.7 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…fa5ebacked Over | 53c | 386$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…7497backed Over | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…1fccbacked Over | 53c | 204$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 144.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…cb66backed Over | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. CanadiensFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.