NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d8a19c62f588a1c2f9918b1de0addec499942b3fad78e538ed0e636085ed93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Canadiens, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Flyers | 64c | 1,545$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.87 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 36c | 1,311$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.93 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Canadiens | 9c | 622.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…88f8backed Canadiens | 37c | 570$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…63c2backed Flyers | 63c | 352$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c6…71bfbacked Canadiens | 37c | 351$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…c05dbacked Canadiens | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…d26cbacked Flyers | 63c | 349$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…fa5ebacked Flyers | 63c | 273$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…7497backed Flyers | 63c | 268$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…1cf4backed Canadiens | 37c | 224$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Canadiens | 35c | 204.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Flyers | 64c | 110.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…cb66backed Flyers | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…3251backed Flyers | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Flyers | 62c | 61.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…99a4backed Canadiens | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…0b8dbacked Flyers | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…1fccbacked Flyers | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Flyers | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. CanadiensFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.