Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3503caa4d3651ad9a31894068ee1fa9a4b89dfa64b8d77a492edb768e48ad983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Gatorsof Arkansas Razorbacks, Florida Gators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 12,420$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.43 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 2,776$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 1,630$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.43 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 1,413$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.67 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 21c | 1,190$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.51 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 1,166$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…03a9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 1,047$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.92 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 693.58$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 552.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 23c | 531.21$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 400.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 21c | 373.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…4b49backed Florida Gators | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 305.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 304.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 298.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…8b9ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 286.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 9c | 276.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 20c | 246.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…7873backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 221.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 199.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…3488backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 194.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 7c | 171.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 171.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…c496backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 165.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…df7fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 130.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Florida Gators | 77c | 120.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 111.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Florida Gators | 76c | 105.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6212…4eb3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 104.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 20c | 95.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 20c | 91.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 85.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 81.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…f376backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 18c | 80.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…8fc5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 78.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 20c | 76.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 21c | 71.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 200 | 24%48 W · 152 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Florida Gators | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gatorsthis page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 169.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 170.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 171.5Over won
- Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)Florida Gators won
- Spread: Florida Gators (-11.5)Florida Gators won
- Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)Florida Gators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.