Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd402d616dc2a44e108fac89aa45e832b7de7215d310736bbb0d31f0b4087dd70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Gatorsof Florida Gators, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Florida Gators | 54c | 89,834$48,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,323.8 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 41,789$19,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,223.11 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 20,571$9,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,462.56 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 14,925$6,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,846.2 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Florida Gators | 54c | 7,308$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 6,998$3,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.68 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 5,171$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.64 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Florida Gators | 52c | 3,387$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.15 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 2,524$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.92 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 2,177$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 1,057$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.53 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 799.99$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Florida Gators | 52c | 594.59$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.95 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Florida Gators | 47c | 567.3$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 56c | 435.63$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.32 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Florida Gators | 54c | 277.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 219.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…3b61backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 204.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Florida Gators | 53c | 189.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Florida Gators | 54c | 136.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 100.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida Gators | 51c | 99.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…ae69backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 25c | 71.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 65.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Florida Gators | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Florida Gators | 66c | 54.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 49.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Florida Gators | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Florida Gators | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Florida Gators | 58c | 32.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 28.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 22.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida GatorsFlorida Gators won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 169.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 170.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 171.5Over won
- Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)Florida Gators won
- Spread: Florida Gators (-11.5)Florida Gators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.