NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350ec8e72d395546f9659ca24d0268b2af2773515886e14643df6c7041788572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Panthers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Panthers | 6c | 8,642$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Bears | 64c | 5,560$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.57 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Panthers | 34c | 3,573$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.04 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…3ef4backed Bears | 66c | 3,217$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Panthers | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…e46ebacked Bears | 66c | 2,420$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e785backed Panthers | 36c | 1,878$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bears | 64c | 1,347$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.41 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…1af3backed Panthers | 39c | 1,266$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Panthers | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Panthers | 1c | 1,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Panthers | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Panthers | 15c | 999.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Panthers | 20c | 969.9$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Panthers | 18c | 739.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Bears | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bears | 65c | 585$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Panthers | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Panthers | 39c | 484.51$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.96 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…2c2cbacked Panthers | 35c | 460$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…5282backed Bears | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Panthers | 34c | 411.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…f7dcbacked Bears | 66c | 330$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Panthers | 15c | 311.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Bears | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Panthers | 34c | 294.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Panthers | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…3dc2backed Panthers | 34c | 230$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…0bb4backed Panthers | 29c | 210.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Bears | 66c | 206.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…bbe5backed Bears | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…4b21backed Panthers | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Bears | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Bears | 66c | 195.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…baadbacked Panthers | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Panthers | 37c | 145.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdf…c1edbacked Bears | 76c | 122.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Panthers | 42c | 120.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Panthers | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Bears | 63c | 110.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed Panthers | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Bears | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…3e13backed Bears | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…92f7backed Panthers | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Bears | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Panthers | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…34d3backed Panthers | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Bears | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Panthers | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Panthers | 52c | 96.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…04d9backed Panthers | 37c | 92.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Panthers | 35c | 85.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Panthers | 31c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Bears | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Bears | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Bears | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Panthers | 25c | 72.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Bears | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…4551backed Bears | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…ebbcbacked Bears | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Panthers | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…7153backed Bears | 66c | 52.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Bears | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bears | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…a1b2backed Panthers | 43c | 48.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…2194backed Bears | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed Panthers | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Panthers | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…88d9backed Bears | 50c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed Bears | 45c | 34.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Bears | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 126 | 63.5%80 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Bears | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed Bears | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…4a0bbacked Bears | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.