Middle East · resolved market
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3538387b73b008cc3948592999d43fc03d9191a8c1bc9963bcc4689dbf7d71fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 10c | 7,613$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.25 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 5c | 3,658$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 71c | 3,068$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 80c | 2,573$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.57 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,627$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.23 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 1,611$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 69c | 819$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed No | 7c | 726.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 27c | 650.64$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 8c | 542.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…f925backed No | 18c | 537.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 28c | 508.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked No | 8c | 467$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked No | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…8464backed No | 14c | 349.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…d168backed No | 32c | 281.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 29c | 260.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed No | 9c | 238.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…f07cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed No | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed No | 31c | 100.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…7677backed Yes | 73c | 84.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 78c | 70.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed No | 23c | 65.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f71…6e31backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…8cf5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.