Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x353a0f2cf54894cab1f69b628b1ed6e9d1f4c8bd59d0ef37b64ab978b45fd8ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 410.33$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…0e3cbacked Under | 37c | 339.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 49c | 234.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 207.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 190.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd872…5228backed Over | 63c | 178.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…c35ebacked Over | 63c | 161.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 32c | 159.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 116.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 38c | 108.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 67c | 74.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 36c | 63.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 31.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…e00fbacked Over | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.