Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x396157db886e81da64e19b1e861f20f6305eeffc6fe748b05c040425534dfb0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4064…f741backed Under | 60c | 9,170$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 2,717$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 1,710$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.2 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 1,111$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.54 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 887.13$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.47 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 38c | 815.92$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 661.77$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.57 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 21c | 543.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.32 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 40c | 410.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.46 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 78c | 385.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 39c | 279.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 41c | 244$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 165.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 71c | 139.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 75c | 134.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 129.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 29c | 99.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 81.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 59.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 30c | 40.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 50c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 17.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.