MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ee06e95ba9110be33cec1819cc0e7fef2e9aeaded29acf832ff5f0e9287d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 50c | 2,025$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.71 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 50c | 1,438$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.65 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 50c | 900.42$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.21 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…79b9backed No | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.