MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27862c1b7116322d0ae2de2715a24751dc4dddbbe7766bcd08b0548dac084e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 2,756$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.49 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 2,572$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.59 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 2,346$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,513$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,285$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.05 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 1,218$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 1,132$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 834.54$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 675.16$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.57 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 508.01$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 497.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 480$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 368$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 368$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 368$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 332.86$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 293.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 245.51$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 215.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 199.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 148$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 146$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 142.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 8c | 140.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 133.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…5693backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 80.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 79.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 54.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 53.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 48.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 47.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…13febacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…4933backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.