MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb75fb6285278771afc957185b69e385e44ddbc58f2de99b7e6804a7a6010c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Under | 0c | 81,730$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 57c | 8,200$4,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.98 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Under | 1c | 5,851$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 58c | 4,200$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 3,813$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.13 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 43c | 3,171$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.22 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Under | 1c | 2,731$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 1,786$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 73c | 1,400$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.05 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 1,332$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 1,251$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.51 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 1,133$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 11c | 1,048$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 780.3$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.18 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 14c | 765.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 44c | 584.75$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.29 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 332.26$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 18c | 325$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 18c | 325$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 39c | 209.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 63c | 123.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Under | 55c | 95.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 46c | 91.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Under | 67c | 80.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 231 | 66.7%154 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 48c | 72.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 53.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 57c | 49.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 58c | 48.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 52c | 35.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 50c | 31.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 56c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.