Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3618588b37b0d86061a984bd6b8a6e3fff9ffd0fe0573e29329cb5b6943bfbfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 54c | 7,440$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,746$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.53 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…dff2backed Under | 45c | 1,328$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,281$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.06 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ed…467abacked Under | 67c | 1,050$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 914.95$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.25 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0a…8521backed Under | 44c | 715.02$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Over | 48c | 600$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 69c | 449.28$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 25c | 293.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Over | 43c | 288.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 77c | 207.79$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 176.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 76c | 169.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 23c | 99.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 75c | 98.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 61c | 84.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…a873backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 60.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Under | 72c | 59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 48c | 40.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 39c | 30.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Under | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.