South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x361d4f1a18342dd9f186d553382816aaac6f9fe4705f6140cc1adb3d5ddee406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 62c | 3,909$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 3,629$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 2,212$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.86 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 69c | 2,138$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 27c | 925.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.19 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda4…b658backed Over | 42c | 504.06$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 69c | 486.43$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 472.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 67c | 373.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 342.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed Under | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 31c | 310.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 67c | 197.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 68c | 196.16$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Over | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 38c | 116.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 74c | 114.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 62c | 113.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 39c | 110.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 54c | 107.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 73c | 97.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 95.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 58c | 95.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 74c | 63.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 74c | 62.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 38c | 50.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 30c | 50.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 58c | 47.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 66c | 44.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 56c | 41.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Over | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 47cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…a836backed Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dd…d19bbacked Under | 68c | 32.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 74c | 23.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Over | 70c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.