South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080cb5b91cbc9a995409a31a3a16643096be515a53215542b8654760c5cc2b03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Under | 76c | 2,020$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.58 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,845$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 1,813$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 1,249$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.17 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 35c | 799.96$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.98 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 64c | 523.19$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 520.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.15 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 30c | 495.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 29c | 353.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 52c | 349.81$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 29c | 326.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 36c | 299.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 36c | 277.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 71c | 214.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 6c | 184.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 66c | 175.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 175.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 111.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 72c | 108.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 31c | 101.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 101.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…0104backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Over | 28c | 85.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda4…b658backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 70c | 75.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 65c | 74.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 67c | 73.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…b942backed Under | 75c | 61.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Under | 75c | 60.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 26c | 60.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 50c | 52.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…b82dbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…9988backed Over | 41c | 49.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 42.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 39.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 68c | 34.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 71c | 34.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 78c | 33.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb817…bdc7backed Under | 72c | 31.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 36c | 30.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 75c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 69c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.