Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3626b4feb3043447fccc4820a11b73ad3fb3772c8f677f31a52364e776603a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 19c | 389.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…57ccbacked No | 41c | 243.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 21c | 243.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 176.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 42c | 139.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 133.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 59c | 119.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 115.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 38c | 112.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 18c | 94.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 93.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 33c | 91.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 35c | 67.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 65.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 70c | 64.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 63.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 38c | 61.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 57.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 45c | 45.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 48c | 37.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 49c | 37.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 29.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 58c | 26.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 25.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 70c | 25.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 24.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 56c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f44…e6e0backed Yes | 76c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 19.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 74c | 18.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.