Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363930b3c2dea29633227b855d45792dce08080a4b469a2aec3d7384209ba33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 25c | 3,655$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 3,425$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.23 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 42c | 2,498$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.08 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 701.92$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.59 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 59c | 675.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.29 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 58c | 399.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 397$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 41c | 391.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 381.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 342.8$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 19c | 102.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…cb8cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 42c | 79.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 19c | 74.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 57c | 30.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Lille OSC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.