Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb64d2e5c24b266d5f35fbcb1a36b1f467cd82fd64a47db51496f279951528974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed No | 50c | 7,000$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 51c | 3,083$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.58 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 1,994$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.86 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 1,294$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.26 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 1,035$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.85 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 701.93$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.11 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 68c | 620.97$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.26 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 31c | 494$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f1…9599backed Yes | 32c | 489.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 57c | 391.18$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 58c | 369.17$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…438abacked No | 63c | 319.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 212.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 51c | 178.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 32c | 168.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db3…e657backed Yes | 65c | 165.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…7ee3backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 68c | 120.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 118.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 69c | 58.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…dfeebacked Yes | 66c | 45.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…4f5ebacked Yes | 31c | 41.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 69c | 38.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 59c | 34.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…1688backed Yes | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Lille OSC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.