Fifa International · resolved market
Will Uganda win on 2025-12-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367c338e272d973f725477b421d4c1410362faefba617d2871620fce5dd5fcb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd309…c8e0backed Yes | 15c | 23,899$3,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,576.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,933$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.99 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 4c | 3,367$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,032$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.19 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 14c | 2,803$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.24 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Yes | 10c | 995.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 20.5%30 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…d17bbacked Yes | 2c | 796.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 24.5%47 W · 145 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 14c | 581.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 15c | 246.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 183.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 15c | 177$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 149.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 9c | 143.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed Yes | 16c | 134.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 129.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…aa1ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…41dfbacked Yes | 14c | 82.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 14c | 71.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uganda win on 2025-12-23?this page
- Will Tunisia vs. Uganda end in a draw?No won
- Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.