Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368508bad85b2fcf0e7d2956075f063ececcc2f882b678ee9f04907d4da8b734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 60c | 530.26$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.35 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 489.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 297.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 288.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 55c | 274.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 202.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 19c | 106.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 105.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 46c | 104.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 17c | 99.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 98.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 51c | 95.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 91.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 35c | 85.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 62c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 50c | 70.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 40c | 67.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 61.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 60.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 50c | 53.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 50c | 49.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 43.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 39.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 61c | 37.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 54c | 37.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 72c | 33.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 52c | 33.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 48c | 32.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 28.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 45c | 27.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 24.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 59c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.