Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17212e04a7419baeccb15a874c898f902108e5545c6a0c82a6dc868e88061806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4add…9acbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 71c | 355.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed No | 77c | 211.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 57c | 175.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 143$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 75c | 137.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 48c | 105.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 70c | 100.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 91.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 12c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 87.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7ca1backed No | 78c | 86.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 24c | 85.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 83.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 27c | 82.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 81.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 77.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 76.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 74.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 22c | 69.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 28c | 69.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 63.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 55.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 45.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 44.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 38c | 38.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 37.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 74c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 42c | 35.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 68c | 30.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 28.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 70c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.