Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368e310933aa2ed301bc711427d51f7d56dcc951727a6295057ed19e78e78ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 25c | 506.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 75c | 268.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 208.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 149.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 111.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 67.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 62.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 31c | 60.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 53.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…2fddbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…ad5bbacked No | 74c | 40.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…317fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…e04bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…92c3backed No | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked No | 71c | 33.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 32c | 33.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 73c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 79c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 69c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.